After Dark

The Moths

860 moth species are confirmed on 30 riparian acres, including 455 first iNaturalist records for Tioga County. That county-first total strengthens a thin public baseline; it does not make every species rare. The clearest property signal is a broad fauna spanning humid creek margins, wetland edge, northern-hardwood slope, and oak-hickory upland. With 261 wild or established plant species recorded, the most informative next gains should come from sugar bait, canopy lighting, cold-season surveys, dusk walks, and host-focused searches.

860
Moth species
6,603
Records
80%
Est. complete
of the ~1,075 species estimated on this site (Chao2)
~1,075
Likely total
Chao2 estimate; 95% CI 1013–1162
July
Peak month
35–50% richer
Creek Ecotone

Arthropod richness at a stream-hardwood edge runs 35–50% above comparable upland sites. The transition between water and forest stacks microhabitats and host-plant niches that a uniform woodland can't provide.

50–100 m from bank
Humidity Buffer

Dry air below ~65°F suppresses moth flight — but creek-side humidity counters that within 50–100 m of the bank. Marginal nights that shut down upland sites often stay productive here.

261 species · 30 acres
Host Plants

2–3× the NY mixed-hardwood baseline. Eastern Lepidoptera are mostly host-plant specialists; 261 wild/established plants × ~1.8 predicted moths per plant species predicts ~470. Observed: 860 — the creek concentrates the high-value host genera, which pushes the count above the prediction.

What this shows

The strongest next step is to connect adult moth records to the plants and microhabitats that can support them. Willow, ash, sumac, apple, poplar and aspen, oak, and hickory give practical places to look for larvae, rolls, mines, and feeding sign. Adult photographs alone don't prove breeding or host use on the property, so repeat records and host-linked evidence matter more than another isolated name. That work should also add small moths a night sheet under-samples.

Yet to Find

The Gap List

Moth species recorded within ~50 miles but not yet found on the property, ranked by how often they appear in August county records. Tompkins County effort inflates some regional frequencies, especially for micros, so treat this as a practical field queue.

Kingfisher Hollow has recorded 860 of the 1821 moth species documented within ~50 miles — 47% of the regional pool. That already represents 90% of the 955 moths ever recorded across all of Tioga County — a county sparsely enough documented that the ~50-mile regional pool is the truer completeness yardstick. The 20 species below have all been seen by someone nearby. They're not rare. They're not hypothetical. They need the right night, the right trap position, or the right observer paying attention.

What this shows

Filtered to species with county records in August — the flight window covering the next two weeks. Tioga County's moth records are thin, and many nearby records come from well-worked Tompkins County, so this list draws from the ~50-mile regional pool with that bias in mind. Species at the top are seen repeatedly nearby in these same weeks; their absence here is usually a survey-method gap, not evidence that the property lacks the habitat. Current host-plant clues keep pointing at grape, dogwood, willow, oak, hickory, basswood, jewelweed, and wetland composites. Catocala underwings come poorly to UV but readily to sugar bait on warm August nights. Different gaps need different methods.

By Family

Where the Gaps Are

The moth fauna isn't evenly sampled. Large, photo-workable families are well represented, while other groups need host-plant work, bait, canopy sampling, colder-season surveys, or expert micro review.

Solid bar: species recorded here. Faint bar: species known within ~50 miles. Numbers at bar ends show the recorded-to-regional ratio. Sorted by recorded species count.

What this shows

Large, conspicuous families are the best represented because their adults are easier to photograph and identify at lights. The remaining gap is concentrated in small or difficult families and in species reached through host searches, bait, canopy work, and colder-season surveys. Tortricidae now has 121 species documented here; further useful gains will depend on sharp photographs, host association, and expert review.

Inventory Status

Inventory Status

860 species are confirmed, while a sampling model estimates about 1,075. Coverage and evenness describe the documented sample from different angles; neither is a complete habitat-quality test.

Status 1 · Coverage

How much remains?

230
On one night only
122
On just two nights
128
Survey nights

Chao2 uses the ratio of species seen on exactly one night (Q1) vs. exactly two nights (Q2) across 128 survey sessions to project undetected species. Shaded band: 95% CI. The curve hasn't flattened yet.

What this shows

Of the 860 moth species confirmed here, 230 have appeared on exactly one night. That high single-night count keeps the accumulation curve rising and yields a Chao2 estimate near 1075 species (95% CI: 1013–1162), or about 80% observed. Treat that as a sampling-based estimate, not a fixed property ceiling. The roughly 215 undetected species are most likely concentrated in cold seasons, bait-feeders, canopy species, and host-linked micros poorly sampled by a ground-level UV sheet.

Status 2 · Community structure

How evenly is life distributed?

Completeness estimates how much remains unseen. Evenness tests whether the documented community is broad or dominated by only a few common species.

6.24
Shannon H′
equivalent to 76 equally common species
0.997
Simpson
two random records are different species 99.7% of the time
0.923
Evenness
near 1.0 — the community is unusually well-balanced, no species dominates

Species ranked by total records, log scale. A steep initial drop followed by a long flat tail indicates high evenness — no species dominates. Terracotta: species recorded only once or twice.

What this shows

Across 860 documented moth species, the gentle slope shows that no single species dominates this photo-vouchered sample. That is consistent with a broad habitat mosaic and 261 recorded wild or established plants, but the curve also reflects survey method and the long tail of one- and two-record species; it is not by itself a habitat-quality test. Repeat records and stronger evidence for that tail will be more informative than attaching a single ecological verdict to the curve.

The Calendar

Flight Seasons

A practical queue for choosing which nights deserve a complete multi-station survey, followed by the whole-night evidence behind it.

Next 10 nights

Monday, Aug 17 and Tuesday, Aug 18

These are the two strongest candidates for a complete, multi-station survey. The ranking estimates documented richness: how many distinct species the usual route is likely to record. Warmer evenings often keep more of the season’s moth community in flight, while a bright moon can reduce what a light sheet draws or reveals. A lower prediction means a narrower expected catch—not that moths are absent.

Updated Aug 17 at 2:03 PM · Open-Meteo forecast

Best available night

Monday, Aug 17

Full multi-station survey

None/100

Not locally predictive yet

Swipe for all nights →

  1. Mon

    Aug 17

    Focus
    81/ 100
    • 69°F at 9 PM
    • 83% humidity
    • light NNW wind
    • 9% rain
    • 🌒 waxing crescent · 21% lit
  2. Tue

    Aug 18

    Worth it
    78/ 100
    • 69°F at 9 PM
    • 57% humidity
    • light NNE wind
    • 1% rain
    • 🌒 waxing crescent · 30% lit
  3. Wed

    Aug 19

    Backup
    73/ 100
    • 65°F at 9 PM
    • 84% humidity
    • calm
    • 64% rain
    • 🌒 waxing crescent · 40% lit
  4. Thu

    Aug 20

    Backup
    72/ 100
    • 59°F at 9 PM
    • 84% humidity
    • calm
    • 6% rain
    • 🌓 first quarter · 51% lit
  5. Fri

    Aug 21

    Backup
    70/ 100
    • 59°F at 9 PM
    • 91% humidity
    • light NE wind
    • 4% rain
    • 🌓 first quarter · 61% lit
  6. Sat

    Aug 22

    Backup
    74/ 100
    • 66°F at 9 PM
    • 72% humidity
    • calm
    • 42% rain
    • 🌔 waxing gibbous · 71% lit
  7. Sun

    Aug 23

    Backup
    45/ 100
    • 60°F at 9 PM
    • 72% humidity
    • moderate WNW wind
    • 52% rain
    • 🌔 waxing gibbous · 80% lit
  8. Mon

    Aug 24

    Backup
    58/ 100
    • 54°F at 9 PM
    • 82% humidity
    • light NNW wind
    • 29% rain
    • 🌔 waxing gibbous · 88% lit
  9. Tue

    Aug 25

    Backup
    59/ 100
    • 56°F at 9 PM
    • 84% humidity
    • light NE wind
    • 16% rain
    • 🌔 waxing gibbous · 94% lit
  10. Wed

    Aug 26

    Backup
    63/ 100
    • 63°F at 9 PM
    • 63% humidity
    • light NE wind
    • 17% rain
    • 🌔 waxing gibbous · 98% lit
How to read this prediction

On 44 full survey nights, season alone had 23.9 species of held-out error; adding weather and moon changed that to 25.1. That small 0% gain is below the 5% threshold set for calling the local signal predictive.

Temperature and moonlight are clues, not switches. Moths are ectotherms, so warmer air generally supports more flight and more species-level detections. Moonlight is harder to read: a bright sky may weaken the lamp’s relative pull or alter flight activity, while cloud and canopy can soften the effect. The model considers both alongside season, humidity, wind, and rain. It predicts what the survey is likely to document, not the property’s true presence or absence that night.

Survey suitability comes first. Brief or light showers lower the condition score but do not force a skip. If the forecast shows steady rain, a heavy hourly rate, strong wind, or cold crossing the field cutoff, the card shows a condition score instead of a species estimate and names the reason in the pill.

The predicted value is whole-night distinct species documented under your historical adaptive protocol—not individual moth abundance and not a fixed-duration count. A night enters the model as full effort when it has more than 30 nighttime observations spanning more than 60 minutes; the full evening and morning session is then counted. Observation totals and gaps between photos are not used as continuous effort because you document species once and travel between stations. Published light-trap work likewise finds richer samples on warmer nights and lower catches under brighter moonlight, while cautioning that effects vary by method, cloud cover, and moth group. Temperature and richness study · Moonlight and light-trap study.

Effort still varies: productive nights keep you out longer, station routes differ, and unsurveyed nights are missing rather than zero. Predictions therefore include your historical field behavior. Logging planned start/end time, stations completed, and travel time would let a future version separate weather from effort more cleanly.

Calendar heatmap of 128 Kingfisher Hollow moth-reporting nights from July 2, 2025 through August 15, 2026. The highest nightly total is 160 species on August 5, 2026. Blank dates have no moth report and do not mean zero species.

Swipe sideways for the full year →

Night-by-night data (128 reporting nights)

Counts are distinct moth species assigned to the evening session; records before noon count toward the previous night. A missing date means no moth report, not a zero-species survey.

NightSpeciesObservations
Aug 15, 20266775
Aug 14, 20265867
Aug 13, 20265862
Aug 11, 20266376
Aug 10, 20265153
Aug 9, 2026116140
Aug 8, 202693112
Aug 7, 20265665
Aug 6, 20262323
Aug 5, 2026160213
Aug 4, 20262225
Aug 3, 20265561
Jul 30, 202698117
Jul 29, 20261011
Jul 28, 202666
Jul 27, 20263845
Jul 26, 2026120147
Jul 25, 20267685
Jul 24, 2026111169
Jul 23, 20265572
Jul 22, 20266372
Jul 21, 2026130161
Jul 20, 20268395
Jul 19, 20265281
Jul 18, 20266885
Jul 17, 2026111135
Jul 16, 2026138170
Jul 15, 2026112134
Jul 14, 202693108
Jul 13, 202699
Jul 12, 202699119
Jul 11, 2026152225
Jul 10, 202691134
Jul 9, 2026111134
Jul 8, 2026108119
Jul 7, 20268294
Jul 5, 20264650
Jul 4, 2026125182
Jul 3, 20267995
Jul 2, 20263442
Jul 1, 20265362
Jun 30, 20266483
Jun 29, 20267282
Jun 28, 20268299
Jun 18, 2026101125
Jun 17, 20266271
Jun 16, 20267579
Jun 15, 20261313
Jun 14, 202611
Jun 13, 20265974
Jun 12, 20268295
Jun 11, 202677
Jun 10, 20263849
Jun 9, 20267886
Jun 8, 20268291
Jun 7, 202698124
Jun 5, 2026101153
Jun 4, 20264851
Jun 3, 20264651
Jun 2, 20263536
May 30, 2026810
May 29, 20261112
May 28, 202656
May 27, 20264650
May 26, 202611
May 25, 202611
May 4, 20261618
Apr 27, 202699
Apr 24, 202699
Apr 23, 202656
Apr 22, 202634
Apr 17, 20261113
Apr 14, 202645
Apr 13, 20261618
Apr 4, 20261720
Apr 3, 202611
Mar 25, 202611
Mar 14, 202611
Mar 10, 202658
Mar 9, 202644
Mar 8, 202633
Nov 17, 202511
Oct 18, 202511
Oct 5, 202523
Oct 4, 202533
Oct 3, 20251013
Oct 1, 202533
Sep 28, 20252540
Sep 27, 20251836
Sep 26, 20252648
Sep 25, 202535
Sep 20, 20251927
Sep 19, 20251824
Sep 15, 20251920
Sep 14, 20252933
Sep 13, 20252330
Sep 12, 20251718
Sep 11, 20253038
Sep 10, 20252326
Sep 9, 20251820
Sep 8, 2025811
Sep 7, 20251114
Sep 4, 20251113
Sep 3, 20252325
Sep 2, 20251214
Sep 1, 20252431
Aug 31, 20252432
Aug 30, 20251618
Aug 29, 202511
Aug 27, 20252533
Aug 25, 20253239
Aug 23, 202561129
Aug 22, 202511
Aug 21, 202511
Aug 20, 2025810
Aug 19, 202534
Aug 18, 202511
Aug 17, 202511
Aug 16, 202522
Aug 15, 20257695
Aug 12, 20253335
Aug 11, 20254668
Aug 10, 20254459
Aug 9, 20253773
Aug 2, 202511
Aug 1, 202511
Jul 12, 202511
Jul 2, 202511

Each filled square is one evening survey session; the printed number is the distinct moth species reported that night. Color reinforces the total. Blank dates mean no moth report, not zero species.

What this shows

Whole-night distinct species is the right response for this survey: each species is documented, not every arriving moth, and the route can move among stations with travel gaps. More than 30 nighttime observations across more than 60 minutes marks a full-effort night; neither value is then used as a richness predictor. Effort still varies, so the result describes the historical survey protocol rather than weather acting alone.

Green: species recorded that month. Terracotta: species recorded for the first time ever. Faded months are outside the May–September core flight season. Hover for survey-night counts.

What this shows

June has produced the most new species per survey night (219 firsts across 19 nights). Months with a tall terracotta bar but a short green one are where additional effort would pay off. The core season runs late June through August; cool nights tend to narrow flight activity, while bright moonlight can reduce what reaches or is detected at the sheet.

Faint line: full observed date range. Thick bar: middle 50% of records (core flight window). Dot: median date. Species with fewer than 3 records omitted. Sorted by median flight date.

What this shows

Each row is one species. The thick bar is its core flight window — the middle 50% of records. The faint line reaches its earliest and latest confirmed dates. Read all 860 rows together and you get the season's shape: a small March opening, a sharp June rise, and the broadest sampled community in July — 563 species across 31 nights — before the list narrows through late summer and fall. These windows now combine two partial field seasons. They are useful search calendars, not fixed flight limits; additional early spring, late fall, and repeat midsummer nights will keep changing them.

Each row is normalized to its own peak, so a species seen 4 times reads as vividly as one seen 400 times. Hover any cell for raw observation counts.

What this shows

Scan a row: that species' season, bright at its peak, dark where it disappears. Scan a column: the active community for that month. The sparse winter columns are partly real — few moths fly in January and February — and partly a survey gap, since few people run lights in the cold. Both things are true, and more data will eventually separate them.

Find More

How to Find More

860 species came mostly from night lighting, which selects for large, photo-positive moths. These are the methods that reach the rest: bait-feeders, day and dusk fliers, canopy species, cold-season moths, and the host-linked micros worth documenting without turning the survey into a collection project.

Sugar baiting

Where

Rum-molasses-overripe-banana ferment painted in vertical streaks on mature oak, maple, and shagbark hickory trunks along the mesic slope edge and the floodplain terrace, 50–100 m from the creek where humidity holds.

When

Warm, humid August nights, 64–75°F, no moon, light wind; bait at dusk and check by headlamp every 45–60 min until 1 AM. Repeat on warm September nights.

Adds

Catocala underwings (come poorly to UV) and bait-positive Noctuidae — Eupsilia, Lithophane, Sunira, Amphipyra, Scoliopteryx — that the light sheet misses.

Larval beating

Where

Beating sheet under low streamside Salix and Alnus, plus Carya, Quercus, Acer and Betula on the mesic slope; tap branches and rear what drops.

When

June–July daytime for peak Tortricidae and Gelechiidae larvae; a second pass in September. Rear larvae on host foliage to confirm species on emergence.

Adds

Micro-moths that never reach UV: Tortricidae, Gelechiidae, Coleophoridae case-bearers, Nepticulidae leaf-miners — the bulk of the undetected species.

Canopy light sheet

Where

A second sheet hoisted 10–15 m on a rope-and-pulley over a canopy gap in the mesic slope forest, well above the standard ground sheet.

When

Calm June–July nights, 60–72°F, humidity above 60%, no moon; run from 30 min before dark to 2 AM alongside the ground sheet.

Adds

The Eupithecia complex (20+ species likely) and canopy-flying micro-geometrids and Tortricidae that rarely descend to a ground sheet.

Dual light comparison

Where

A 160W mercury-vapor bulb and a 15W actinic on separate sheets ~30 m apart at the floodplain-creek ecotone, the property's richest edge.

When

Peak June and July nights, 60–72°F, no moon, light wind; full dark to 2 AM, swapping observers between stations hourly.

Adds

Species one light type filters out — MV pulls large Sphingidae, Saturniidae (watch for Hyalophora cecropia) and Catocala; actinic adds small Geometridae and microleps.

Shoulder-season runs

Where

The standard ground sheet at the sheltered creek bank, where the humidity buffer keeps moths flying on cold nights.

When

Seasons the survey neglects: warm late-September and October nights, November dusk runs at 38–50°F for Operophtera, and late-March/April nights above 45°F.

Adds

Cold-season specialists absent from the June/August-heavy record: Operophtera, Sunira, late Noctuidae, and the early-spring Orthosia quaker complex.